Ash cloud obscures success of warning system

Ash cloud obscures success of warning system: article written by me on UCL website:
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/1004/10041901

Info for travellers in the current volcano ash crisis in the UK

It is extraordinary, finally volcano hazards are effecting the UK and it is wonderful to see the global protocols for dealing with volcanic ash work so well in Europe. I have been most excited although for travellers everywhere it must be a miserable experience.

The BBC now have a great page with loads of links regarding the current status of things:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8623806.stm and there was a great clip on the BBC Radio 4 Today Program, that explains what is happening and why. Listen again on http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8624000/8624534.stm including an interview with Prof Steve Sparks.

The flight restriction has now been extended to 1am Saturday 17th, see http://www.nats.co.uk/ for further updates..You can also see updates on the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre website: http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html. If the graphics still indicate there is likely to be ash over the UK, then I think the ban is going to continue to be extended.

The problem at the moment is that the volcano is still erupting, and that the wind movements over the UK and Europe are very slow, and blowing ash across the UK. Regarding the volcano, it is still erupting. Most volcanologists in Iceland feel that the volcano will not erupt at such explosive levels for more than a few days, but it could continue for weeks or months. However, the intensity is likely to drop within a few days. There is no website with monitoring data like the wonderful USGS websites, so at the moment the likely behavior the volcano is based on past behavior. According to Prof Bill McGuire on http://www.abuhrc.org/newsmedia/Pages/news_view.aspx?news=37 the last eruption of Eyjafjöll lasted more than 12 months so this is probably the worst case scenario. Another bleak scenario is that Katla volcano to the west of the Eyjafjöll has historically been triggered by activity at its neighbour, so there may be more potential activity in the future. See http://www2.norvol.hi.is/page/ies_Eyjafjallajokull_eruption for more information and updates on the volcanoes behavior.

Coming back to practicalities though, it is very hard to say if the flight restrictions will be removed by tomorrow. I think that things are not looking too optimistic right now. So my advice would be to get yourself booked in for a few more days and try and make the most of your extended break and get yourself booked up on a flight as soon as possible. It will be pandemonium here as so many flights have been missed and people will be trying to get seats on already fully booked flights.The trains and ferries are also overbooked, so be cautious if flying into mainland Europe to get across to the UK.

Hope this information gives you the tools to do some monitoring yourself. If you are frustrated about the situation, read http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8622099.stm and hopefully you will realise it is better to be safe than sorry when it comes to volcanic ash.

Earthquake warning systems (and twitterers)

(Source & image credits: xkcd (cartoon 723))

Fun cartoon but it may well be the future for many early warning systems.