Politics and scientific uncertainity

According to the Reuters linked article published on 4th March, the reason for the delay in Chile issuing a tsunami alert on 27th February, was confusion as to whether the earthquake epicenter was on land or under the ocean, in other words whether a tsunami was created. http://www.alertnet.org/db/an_art/59877/2010/02/4-192810-1.htm

There is still confusion within the media as to whether the Chilean navy issued tsunami warnings or not. What is interesting is that  the the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a warning for Chile and Peru within ten minutes of the earthquake - see http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/pacific/2010/pacific.2010.02.27.064454.txt for the warning issued. Although the warning states 'it is not known that a tsunami was generated' a warning was still issued. It is up to the member countries to decide what action they will take based on this information.

Perhaps given the scientific uncertainties of whether a tsunami had been generated, it would have been sensible to take all precautions possible and raise the tsunami alarm. If no tsunnami appearred, I suspect the locals would not have been angry given the scale of the earthquake. It seems goverments are still scared to give warnings without scientific certainty, which in this case is not possible until the event occurs given the short time scales involved. By not providing a warning there is no opportunity for the vulnerable populations to make their own minds up whether to move away from the coast.

According to outgoing President Bachelet Chile 'has to improve its response and monitoring systems' by employing more experts in seismology and geology. But it seems that 'political infighting' between the government and military agencies may have played a role alongside the scientific uncertainties. This event has highlighted the success of the tsunami early warning system in locations far away from the earthquake where ample time allowed preparation (Hawaii, Japan, New Zealand). However, it is also clear that tsunami warning systems still face many challenges in providing accurate data and warnings to vulnerable populations that have less than 30 minutes until potential impact.

As of March 11th, the head of Chile's emergency management agency Onemi resigned, stating that, "we were blind and speechless" in the few hours after the quake struck. "We had a breakdown in communications and I acknowledge that." http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/chiles-emergency-chief-resigns-20100311-pzyb.html. A breakdown in communication? Well that sounds familiar! Communication is the essence of early warning systems and this quote once again highlights the need for further research into the conmunication and decision making processes invovled in a warning system to make them more effective.

New SEPA flood warning scheme

A new £1 million SEPA scheme to protect vulnerable communities from the threat of flooding in high-risk areas of the North East of Scotland was launched on March 2nd. http://www.sepa.org.uk/about_us/news/2010/new_flood_warning_scheme.aspx

The EWS is based on rainfall and river level monitoring across the catchment areas to establish better information on conditions. The public access this information via SEPA's 24 hour Floodline information service. The intention is to 'allow local people crucial extra time to take action to protect themselves and their property'. I just wonder if such a proactive EWS will be successful or whether a majority of the EWS users will depend on a warning via their local authorities and services.

Chile Tsunami

Interesting article published on 3rd March by the BBC news website, which reviews the failure of the Chilean oceanographic service to issue a tsunami warning following the 8.8 magnitude earthquake on 27th February near Concepcion: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8548152.stm

'We were unclear with the information we gave because we were not precise enough to tell the president if the alert was to be maintained or cancelled'
Admiral Edmundo Gonzalez, Chilean navy

This quote highlights the importance in making quick and accountable decisions during a time of crisis and highlights the importance of the decisions made by the responsible science agency (oceanographic service) on the ability for second order decision makers (the Chilean government natural disaster agency) to act when there are substantial levels of uncertainty.

I was not the only one who recognized this failure and on March 6th, the BBC news website reported that the head of the Chilean oceanographic service had been sacked:

'The service, part of the Chilean navy, has been widely criticized for failing to issue a nationwide tsunami warning immediately after the quake'
BBC article http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8552989.stm

I am still somewhat confused as to why they did not issue a tsunami warning, and even more disappointed that the locals did not have the knowledge to move away to high ground following such a large earthquake, especially in a country where tsunamis are relatively common.

A lot more research needs to be done on decision making processes if EWS are to be more effective.